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Archive for March 17th, 2008

Mar-17-2008

2008 Market Forecast for Home Buyers and Sellers In The USA

After the market took a downward turn late in summer 2005, experts claimed the real estate bubble had burst. As the market continued to decline in 2006, many sellers were feeling pricing pinches. By mid-2007, buyers were sitting on the fence in a trance-like state, wondering whether it was a good time to buy and whether they could time the real estate market.
Where will 2008 take us? Based on my study of real estate facts and trends from 2007, here are my professional home buying and selling predictions for next year.

1) Home Prices Will Decline and Flatten
Median home prices will continue to fall in softened markets. They won’t take a nose dive; though, they will float, ever-so-gently like a feather, slipping left to right, then left again, and closer and closer to a landing spot.Sponsored Links
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Overpriced listings will die quick deaths.

2) Short Sales & Foreclosures Will Increase
Interest rates on 3-year and 5-year ARMs will begin adjusting, and those who pay interest on Option ARMS, including many buyers who used 100% financing in 2005, will begin to lose their homes. Many banks will refuse to negotiate short sales, paving the way for a flood of bank-owned properties to hit the market.

3) Interest Rates Will Stabilize
Rates will move forward and backward within one-quarter point, and buyers will gravitate toward fixed-rate mortgages. Buyers who cannot qualify for conventional loans will lean toward seller-financed instruments such as land contracts or lease option purchases.

4) More Investors Will Enter the Market
Because investors use different criteria than traditional home buyers, investors will return to the market as they begin to recognize that a buyer’s market is an excellent time to purchase real estate. First-time home buyers will find themselves competing with all-cash investors, and the investors will win.

5) Related Businesses Will Close Doors
Mortgage companies, appraisers, real estate agents, builders, construction-related industries, title companies and escrow companies will either close doors or consolidate to compensate for the slowing real estate markets of 2006 and 2007. Those that do survive the slowdown will reduce staff.

6) Buyers Will Write Lowball Offers
Novice buyers will read newspaper headlines, figure out it is a buyer’s market and write lowball offers hand over fist. Some buyers won’t even look at homes before writing insultingly low offers. Sellers should expect to receive an abnormal number of out-of-whack offers from buyers who will throw lowballs at a wall to see if something sticks.

7) Advertising Will Move Online
As newspaper advertising and readership continues to decline, agents will question whether their home advertising dollars are better spent elsewhere. Print advertising will lose its effectiveness. If postal rates continue to increase, agents will stop using direct mail campaigns and instead post Internet listings for better results and low-cost marketing strategies.

8 ) Inventory Will Increase Before Sharply Dropping
As the New Year rolls around, sellers whose listings expired in 2007 will put their homes back on the market as a new listing. Nobody will be fooled. Inventory will continue to climb until mid-summer, at which point sellers will begin to realize they must either remove their home from the market or be reasonable. Most will choose to remove their homes from active status and inventory will begin to fall.

9) REOs Will Refuse to Pay Some Closing Costs
Banks are sick and tired of taking it in the shorts. First, agents tried to cram short sales down their throats, and then banks were doubly disappointed when no one bid at the trustee’s sales, leaving them stuck with unwanted inventory. Banks will demand bulk discount rates from title and escrow companies. Banks will also stop paying some ordinary closing costs such as city taxes and state documentary transfer tax.

10) Flood Insurance Rates Will Escalate
New assessments of flood risk may lead the federal government to redraw flood maps, possibly requiring more property owners to carry flood insurance or increasing costs. Home owners with preferred risk flood insurance policies could see rates double, while those who have no flood insurance could face paying rates that are 10 times higher than they would have paid under the old risk maps.

From Elizabeth Weintraub,

Posted under News
Mar-17-2008

Lowball Offers on the Rise - New York Times

WHAT image does the term “lowballer” conjure up for you? A smirking bottom feeder in a bad suit? A fast-talking investor working the phone?

HOW LOW IS TOO LOW? Carleen Lekelly has her colonial in Basking Ridge, N.J., on the market for $885,000. She has gotten a couple of offers in the low $800,000 range and tells lowballers to look elsewhere.

How about a couple of young newlyweds who have saved their wedding cash to put toward their first home?

James and Valentina Sbarra fit the last description, and they are relieved to be able to call themselves successful lowballers. Any nervousness they felt in making a stingy offer — lowballing is typically defined as offering less than 90 percent of a house’s asking price — fell away the minute they struck a deal on their two-bedroom raised ranch in Pawling, N.Y., in Dutchess County.

“We kind of took a gamble,” said Mr. Sbarra, a bank manager in Mount Kisco, N.Y. “But it worked out for us.”

Throughout the region, buyers of all stripes are feeling similarly empowered to bid low and keep their hopes high. The practice still fails more often than not, in that buyers are unlikely to get themselves a steal. But many sellers are swallowing hard and negotiating, because lowballing has become so common that, for better or worse, it’s part of the new norm in buying or selling a house.

The Sbarras gambled by offering $287,000 for their house, which was listed at a reasonable $329,000. In doing so, they risked angering the owner and ruining their prospects for negotiation.

“I think it’s worth $320, $325, and I gave them my opinion,” said Peter Bell, an owner of Balch Buyer’s Realty in Mamaroneck, N.Y., an agency that represents only buyers. “But they said, ‘We don’t want to go too high.’ So I said, ‘O.K., let me make the offer as strong as I can, and we’ll hope for the best.’ ”

Much to Mr. Bell’s delight, the owner responded with a counteroffer of $315,000, and the parties went back and forth until settling on a price of $300,000, the amount the Sbarras had set as their cutoff. The couple moved in last month.

“We would have been disappointed if it hadn’t worked out,” Mr. Sbarra said. “But it was a situation where we felt buyers had the upper hand.”

Many buyers are willing to go a lot further than the Sbarras did, apparently without concern about rankling owners.

“It’s like the Wild West out there right now,” said Terry Sciubba, the owner and broker at the Sherlock Homes Realty Corporation in Glen Cove, N.Y., on Long Island. “I do have customers where if a house is listed at $600,000, they’ll put in an offer for $350,000. That really, really happens.”

In Westchester, that mind-set plays out right through the home inspection process, which has become “a weapon for the buyers to further negotiate the contract,” said Keith E. Schutzman, a real estate lawyer in Scarsdale, N.Y. “A $500 repair item is now a $5,000 repair item” when it comes to asking the seller to lower the price.

Tami Rapaport, a sales associate in the Tenafly, N.J., office of Coldwell Banker Residential, finds the same thing happening in Bergen County. “People are coming in with offers even 20 percent under,” she said. “People have no shame.”

To be sure, there is an aspect of lowballing that seeks to take advantage of other people’s desperation or misfortune. Some lowball bids are plain outlandish, never mind insulting.

Yet in a difficult real estate market like this one, advocates of the lowball approach say that, practiced respectfully and within the bounds of reason, it can also serve as a necessary reality check on overpriced properties. If some agents are reluctant to push stubborn sellers to lower their prices out of fear of losing the listing, a few disappointingly low offers will communicate the market’s message in the bluntest terms.

James Bednar has been tracking New Jersey lowballers on his blog, New Jersey Real Estate Report (available at njrereport.com) since mid-2006. Inspired by his own frustrations as a buyer, Mr. Bednar said he wanted to test the conventional wisdom that lowballing “was a waste of time — that it was futile to even attempt it.”

So, after obtaining a real estate license, which gives him access to multiple listing service data, he began periodically posting lists of sales with gaps of 10 percent or more between the original list price and the selling price.

At first, the conventional wisdom held up — only a tiny percentage of sales reflected accepted lowball offers. But as the market began to slide, the discounts deepened. His last “Lowball!” report, in January, used a 25 percent discount as the starting point, and he still turned up 55 sales in the previous month.

real estate agent now himself, Mr. Bednar sees no shame in making a low offer on a property clearly priced well above the market. While even 5 percent below the asking price might be considered an unfair lowball on a reasonably priced home, on a property priced “horribly high,” he said, “20 percent might be just scratching the surface.”

 

STRIKING A BARGAIN James and Valentina Sbarra were able to buy their raised ranch in Pawling, N.Y., for $300,000. It was initially priced at $329,000.

Sellers aren’t typically so logical in their assessment of an unexpectedly low offer, of course. Those who perceive a lowball as a slap in the face tend to treat the offending buyers — and sometimes their agents — accordingly.

“I have one seller who doesn’t want to talk to me because I brought him an offer $200,000 below the asking price” of $1.4 million, said Attilio Adamo, the owner and broker at Prudential Adamo Realty, in Ridgefield, N.J. “Some sellers get insulted and hold a grudge.”

Their ire is understandable, said Lois A. Vitt, a financial sociologist and the director of the Institute for Socio-Financial Studies in Middleburg, Va. “Some sellers personify their home, believing the value is all about them, not just about the sticks and bricks,” she said. “They might have lived and loved the home, and a lowball offer can be seen as a very personal insult.”

That is particularly true in high-powered, high-value communities like Scarsdale and Greenwich, Conn., where location and status help prop up prices. Buyers making lowball offers in Greenwich are not getting what they want because sellers refuse to take such offers seriously, said Max Wiesen, a sales associate with Coldwell Banker.

Clients of his recently made a cash offer of $4.6 million for a property listed in the mid-$5-million range. Although it was low, the offer was reasonable, Mr. Wiesen said, given that the house had some issues and no other house on the street had sold at the price these sellers were after. The owners’ response was a counteroffer barely distinguishable from their asking price.

“These people in Greenwich are not in the position other people in America are in,” Mr. Wiesen said. “These are wealthy people who can sit on their houses, and they do.”

But elsewhere, many agents are counseling sellers to consider a lowball offer as a starting point. The gamble for sellers who stall a lowballer in hopes of a higher offer is that, with buyers so cautious and credit so tight, the next offer could be a long time in coming.

Owners who really want or need to sell are accepting lowball offers. Sarah Keenan, a sales associate at Nicholas Fingelly Real Estate in Southport, Conn., recently sold a four-bedroom Cape Cod there for almost 17 percent less than the original list price of $695,000. The house had been on the market since September. “The people that are really motivated to sell are taking it,” Ms. Keenan said.

This is not to say that every lowball offer is worthy of acknowledgment. Low bidders have a better chance of making headway if the house they are after has been languishing on the market or needs a lot of updating, agents say. Even then, the low offer is better off accompanied by a logical explanation, possibly with documentation.

John Herman, president of Buyer’s Representative in Greenwich, a buyers’ agency serving Connecticut, likes to write a letter explaining the thinking behind an offer and presenting some comparable sales prices. “The listing agent often can’t be that direct with their client,” he said. “We can be more direct and still be polite.”

Mr. Bell, the Mamaroneck broker, takes a similar approach with lenders when he attempts to negotiate on foreclosed properties. He was recently awaiting word from a bank about approval of his $143,000 offer on an unfinished lakeside house in Patterson, N.Y., with at least $200,000 in mortgage debt. Mr. Bell hopes to fix up the house for his daughter. If the deal goes through, he said, “I have three or four of her girlfriends waiting for the same thing.”

Though deals can be found if a buyer has enough nerve and stamina to put up with repeated refusals, agents advise that lowballing is a bad idea when the buyer really, really wants the house. “You take your chances when you do it,” said Frank Ledermann, an associate broker in the Scarsdale office of Houlihan Lawrence. “It’s America — you can bid whatever you want. But you may not get what you want.”

You certainly won’t get Carleen Lekelly’s house in Basking Ridge, N.J. Since Ms. Lekelly put the four-bedroom colonial on the market for $885,000 last November, she has received a couple of offers in the low $800,000 range.

Her response has been matter-of-fact: with new bathrooms and granite in the kitchen, her house doesn’t deserve discounting, and more important, she isn’t under any pressure to move. Ms. Lekelly politely suggests that lowballers look elsewhere.

“I truly believe there are certain towns that are going to keep their values,” she said. “There are people that think they can go in anywhere and just lowball — I think it’s kind of silly.”

Posted under Buyer, First Time Buyers, News, Seller